AAL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($12.30)
DCF	$-64.85	-627.0%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$12.52	+1.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$706.75M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 2.5% / EPS: -83.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 1.96%

Computed WACC: 1.96%

Cost of equity (Re)10.87%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)18.05%

Debt weight (D/V)81.95%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$12.30

Upside / Downside—

Net Debt (used)$30.42B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-65.01	$-68.85	$-73.31	$-78.47	$-84.41
8.0%	$-61.64	$-64.73	$-68.31	$-72.45	$-77.22
9.0%	$-59.31	$-61.87	$-64.85	$-68.29	$-72.24
10.0%	$-57.59	$-59.78	$-62.32	$-65.24	$-68.60
11.0%	$-56.28	$-58.18	$-60.38	$-62.92	$-65.82

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.17

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-5.64

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$12.30

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 1.96%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 1.96%

Cost of equity (Re)10.87%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)18.05%

Debt weight (D/V)81.95%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$12.30

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth2.5%

Historical Earnings Growth-83.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$706.75M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$12.30

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $3.90B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $30.42B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$12.52

Current Price$12.30

Upside / Downside+1.8%

Implied EV$38.68B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$14.42B	$22.42B	$30.42B	$38.42B	$46.42B
5.9x	$13.10	$0.98	$-11.13	$-23.25	$-35.37
7.9x	$24.92	$12.81	$0.69	$-11.42	$-23.54
9.9x	$36.75	$24.64	$12.52	$0.41	$-11.71
11.9x	$48.58	$36.46	$24.35	$12.23	$0.12
13.9x	$60.41	$48.29	$36.18	$24.06	$11.95

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