AAOI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($84.23)
DCF	$-506.60	-701.4%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$384.92M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 33.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 21.38%

Computed WACC: 21.38%

Cost of equity (Re)22.31%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.27 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)95.86%

Debt weight (D/V)4.14%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-121.72

Current Price$84.23

Upside / Downside-244.5%

Net Debt (used)$41.94M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	25.9%	29.9%	33.9%	37.9%	41.9%
7.0%	$-584.23	$-680.26	$-788.67	$-910.66	$-1047.46
8.0%	$-461.46	$-536.76	$-621.74	$-717.32	$-824.46
9.0%	$-377.41	$-438.53	$-507.49	$-585.01	$-671.88
10.0%	$-316.52	$-367.39	$-424.75	$-489.21	$-561.42
11.0%	$-270.58	$-313.72	$-362.34	$-416.96	$-478.12

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-3.46

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $9.79

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$84.23

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 21.38%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 21.38%

Cost of equity (Re)22.31%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.27 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)95.86%

Debt weight (D/V)4.14%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$84.23

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth33.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$384.92M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$84.23

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$26.91M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -237.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: $41.94M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$92.77

Current Price$84.23

Upside / Downside+10.1%

Implied EV$6.38B

← Overview Financial Statements ← Companies