AAON — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($104.73)
DCF	$-124.00	-218.4%
Graham Number	$16.97	-83.8%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$8.24	-92.1%
EV/EBITDA	$101.20	-3.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$289.80M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 16.8% / EPS: -68.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.35%

Computed WACC: 10.35%

Cost of equity (Re)10.39%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.53%

Debt weight (D/V)0.47%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-100.26

Current Price$104.73

Upside / Downside-195.7%

Net Debt (used)$37.14M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	8.8%	12.8%	16.8%	20.8%	24.8%
7.0%	$-132.98	$-157.70	$-186.07	$-218.50	$-255.40
8.0%	$-107.15	$-126.79	$-149.30	$-175.02	$-204.26
9.0%	$-89.37	$-105.51	$-124.00	$-145.11	$-169.09
10.0%	$-76.40	$-90.00	$-105.57	$-123.33	$-143.49
11.0%	$-66.55	$-78.22	$-91.58	$-106.80	$-124.07

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.21

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $10.58

Results

Graham Number$16.97

Current Price$104.73

Margin of Safety-83.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.35%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.35%

Cost of equity (Re)10.39%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.11 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)99.53%

Debt weight (D/V)0.47%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$104.73

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth16.8%

Historical Earnings Growth-68.6%

Base FCF (TTM)-$289.80M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.40

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$8.24

Current Price$104.73

Upside / Downside-92.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $209.58M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 39.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $37.14M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$101.20

Current Price$104.73

Upside / Downside-3.4%

Implied EV$8.30B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.96B	-$962.86M	$37.14M	$1.04B	$2.04B
35.6x	$115.43	$103.18	$90.93	$78.68	$66.43
37.6x	$120.56	$108.31	$96.06	$83.81	$71.56
39.6x	$125.70	$113.45	$101.20	$88.95	$76.70
41.6x	$130.83	$118.58	$106.33	$94.08	$81.83
43.6x	$135.97	$123.72	$111.47	$99.22	$86.97

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