ADT — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($8.02)
DCF	$54.33	+577.5%
Graham Number	$8.60	+7.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 2.7%
DDM	$4.53	-43.5%
EV/EBITDA	$8.52	+6.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $908.83M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 4.4% / EPS: 24.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.95%

Computed WACC: 6.95%

Cost of equity (Re)9.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.01 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.73%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.38%

Debt weight (D/V)54.62%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$89.56

Current Price$8.02

Upside / Downside+1016.8%

Net Debt (used)$7.80B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	16.7%	20.7%	24.7%	28.7%	32.7%
7.0%	$61.37	$73.97	$88.31	$104.58	$122.96
8.0%	$46.84	$56.78	$68.09	$80.92	$95.40
9.0%	$36.87	$44.99	$54.22	$64.68	$76.49
10.0%	$29.62	$36.42	$44.15	$52.90	$62.77
11.0%	$24.13	$29.93	$36.52	$43.98	$52.38

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.73

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $4.50

Results

Graham Number$8.60

Current Price$8.02

Margin of Safety+7.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.95%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.95%

Cost of equity (Re)9.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.01 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)5.73%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.38%

Debt weight (D/V)54.62%

Results

Current Price$8.02

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-3.2%

Historical Revenue Growth4.4%

Historical Earnings Growth24.7%

Base FCF (TTM)$908.83M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.22

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$4.53

Current Price$8.02

Upside / Downside-43.5%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.66B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 5.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $7.80B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$8.52

Current Price$8.02

Upside / Downside+6.3%

Implied EV$14.32B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$3.80B	$5.80B	$7.80B	$9.80B	$11.80B
1.4x	$-0.18	$-2.79	$-5.41	$-8.02	$-10.64
3.4x	$6.79	$4.17	$1.56	$-1.06	$-3.67
5.4x	$13.75	$11.14	$8.52	$5.91	$3.29
7.4x	$20.72	$18.10	$15.49	$12.87	$10.26
9.4x	$27.68	$25.07	$22.45	$19.84	$17.22

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