ADTN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($9.96)
DCF	$32.48	+226.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 1.8%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$14.93	+49.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $65.73M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 20.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.58%

Computed WACC: 10.58%

Cost of equity (Re)12.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.67%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)75.99%

Debt weight (D/V)24.01%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$24.85

Current Price$9.96

Upside / Downside+149.5%

Net Debt (used)$156.43M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	12.1%	16.1%	20.1%	24.1%	28.1%
7.0%	$35.62	$42.47	$50.29	$59.21	$69.33
8.0%	$28.16	$33.58	$39.77	$46.82	$54.82
9.0%	$23.03	$27.47	$32.54	$38.31	$44.85
10.0%	$19.29	$23.02	$27.28	$32.13	$37.61
11.0%	$16.46	$19.65	$23.30	$27.44	$32.12

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.96

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $1.82

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$9.96

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.58%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.58%

Cost of equity (Re)12.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.40 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.67%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)75.99%

Debt weight (D/V)24.01%

Results

Current Price$9.96

Implied Near-term FCF Growth5.5%

Historical Revenue Growth20.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$65.73M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$9.96

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $77.57M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 17.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $156.43M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$14.93

Current Price$9.96

Upside / Downside+49.9%

Implied EV$1.35B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.84B	-$843.57M	$156.43M	$1.16B	$2.16B
13.4x	$36.02	$23.54	$11.06	$-1.43	$-13.91
15.4x	$37.96	$25.47	$12.99	$0.51	$-11.97
17.4x	$39.89	$27.41	$14.93	$2.45	$-10.03
19.4x	$41.83	$29.35	$16.87	$4.38	$-8.10
21.4x	$43.77	$31.28	$18.80	$6.32	$-6.16

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