AEO

AEO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($22.50)
DCF$6.72-70.1%
Graham Number$15.61-30.6%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 41.3%
DDM$10.30-54.2%
EV/EBITDA$22.50+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $42.84M
Rev: 5.7% / EPS: 29.3%
Computed: 7.72%
Computed WACC: 7.72%
Cost of equity (Re)11.71%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.35 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)65.93%
Debt weight (D/V)34.07%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$11.95
Current Price$22.50
Upside / Downside-46.9%
Net Debt (used)$1.86B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term21.3%25.3%29.3%33.3%37.3%
7.0%$9.02$12.42$16.27$20.62$25.52
8.0%$4.88$7.56$10.59$14.01$17.85
9.0%$2.05$4.23$6.69$9.47$12.60
10.0%$-0.01$1.81$3.87$6.19$8.79
11.0%$-1.56$-0.02$1.73$3.70$5.92

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.13
Yahoo: $9.59

Results

Graham Number$15.61
Current Price$22.50
Margin of Safety-30.6%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 7.72%
Computed WACC: 7.72%
Cost of equity (Re)11.71%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.35 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)65.93%
Debt weight (D/V)34.07%

Results

Current Price$22.50
Implied Near-term FCF Growth36.2%
Historical Revenue Growth5.7%
Historical Earnings Growth29.3%
Base FCF (TTM)$42.84M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.50

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$10.30
Current Price$22.50
Upside / Downside-54.2%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $514.33M
Current: 11.0×
Default: $1.86B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$22.50
Current Price$22.50
Upside / Downside+0.0%
Implied EV$5.67B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.86B$1.86B$1.86B$1.86B$1.86B
7.0x$10.36$10.36$10.36$10.36$10.36
9.0x$16.43$16.43$16.43$16.43$16.43
11.0x$22.50$22.50$22.50$22.50$22.50
13.0x$28.57$28.57$28.57$28.57$28.57
15.0x$34.64$34.64$34.64$34.64$34.64