AER

AER — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($149.44)
DCF$-478.99-420.5%
Graham Number$232.29+55.4%
Reverse DCF
DDM$32.96-77.9%
EV/EBITDA$149.43-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$1.67B
Rev: 8.3% / EPS: 6.6%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-479.35
Current Price$149.44
Upside / Downside-420.8%
Net Debt (used)$42.30B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term0.3%4.3%8.3%12.3%16.3%
7.0%$-485.37$-530.00$-581.72$-641.37$-709.83
8.0%$-444.00$-479.77$-521.18$-568.86$-623.54
9.0%$-415.40$-445.06$-479.35$-518.80$-563.99
10.0%$-394.45$-419.66$-448.76$-482.20$-520.47
11.0%$-378.45$-400.27$-425.42$-454.30$-487.31

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $21.30
Yahoo: $112.59

Results

Graham Number$232.29
Current Price$149.44
Margin of Safety+55.4%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$149.44
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth8.3%
Historical Earnings Growth6.6%
Base FCF (TTM)-$1.67B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.60

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$32.96
Current Price$149.44
Upside / Downside-77.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $4.71B
Current: 14.1×
Default: $42.30B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$149.43
Current Price$149.44
Upside / Downside-0.0%
Implied EV$66.61B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$20.30B$31.30B$42.30B$53.30B$64.30B
10.1x$168.85$101.26$33.67$-33.92$-101.51
12.1x$226.73$159.14$91.55$23.96$-43.64
14.1x$284.61$217.02$149.43$81.84$14.24
16.1x$342.49$274.90$207.31$139.72$72.12
18.1x$400.37$332.78$265.19$197.60$130.00