AES

AES — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($14.21)
DCF$-117.44-926.4%
Graham Number$13.97-1.7%
Reverse DCF
DDM$14.42+1.5%
EV/EBITDA$21.30+49.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$3.11B
Rev: 4.7% / EPS: -33.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-117.44
Current Price$14.21
Upside / Downside-926.4%
Net Debt (used)$28.96B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$-118.10$-133.76$-151.97$-173.06$-197.34
8.0%$-104.32$-116.92$-131.56$-148.48$-167.95
9.0%$-94.77$-105.26$-117.44$-131.49$-147.63
10.0%$-87.76$-96.71$-107.08$-119.04$-132.75
11.0%$-82.39$-90.17$-99.17$-109.53$-121.40

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.52
Yahoo: $5.71

Results

Graham Number$13.97
Current Price$14.21
Margin of Safety-1.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$14.21
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth4.7%
Historical Earnings Growth-33.2%
Base FCF (TTM)-$3.11B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.70

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$14.42
Current Price$14.21
Upside / Downside+1.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $3.43B
Current: 12.9×
Default: $28.96B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$21.30
Current Price$14.21
Upside / Downside+49.9%
Implied EV$44.13B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$14.96B$21.96B$28.96B$35.96B$42.96B
8.9x$21.71$11.88$2.05$-7.78$-17.61
10.9x$31.34$21.51$11.68$1.85$-7.98
12.9x$40.96$31.13$21.30$11.47$1.64
14.9x$50.59$40.76$30.93$21.10$11.27
16.9x$60.21$50.38$40.55$30.72$20.89