AESI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($10.34)
DCF	$-9.32	-190.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$20.60	+99.2%
EV/EBITDA	$9.96	-3.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$32.80M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -8.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.57%

Computed WACC: 7.57%

Cost of equity (Re)11.24%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)67.37%

Debt weight (D/V)32.63%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-10.64

Current Price$10.34

Upside / Downside-202.9%

Net Debt (used)$581.17M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-9.36	$-10.30	$-11.40	$-12.68	$-14.15
8.0%	$-8.53	$-9.29	$-10.17	$-11.19	$-12.37
9.0%	$-7.95	$-8.58	$-9.32	$-10.17	$-11.14
10.0%	$-7.53	$-8.07	$-8.69	$-9.42	$-10.24
11.0%	$-7.20	$-7.67	$-8.21	$-8.84	$-9.56

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.41

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $9.74

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$10.34

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.57%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.57%

Cost of equity (Re)11.24%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.26 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)67.37%

Debt weight (D/V)32.63%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$10.34

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-8.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$32.80M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.00

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$20.60

Current Price$10.34

Upside / Downside+99.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $179.62M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $581.17M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$9.96

Current Price$10.34

Upside / Downside-3.7%

Implied EV$1.82B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.42B	-$418.83M	$581.17M	$1.58B	$2.58B
6.1x	$20.28	$12.23	$4.17	$-3.88	$-11.94
8.1x	$23.17	$15.12	$7.07	$-0.99	$-9.04
10.1x	$26.07	$18.01	$9.96	$1.91	$-6.15
12.1x	$28.96	$20.91	$12.85	$4.80	$-3.26
14.1x	$31.85	$23.80	$15.75	$7.69	$-0.36

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