AGIO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($29.20)
DCF	$-5015.11	-17275.0%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$267.97M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 86.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.91%

Computed WACC: 8.91%

Cost of equity (Re)9.12%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.88 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.70%

Debt weight (D/V)2.30%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-5104.48

Current Price$29.20

Upside / Downside-17581.1%

Net Debt (used)-$814.22M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	78.1%	82.1%	86.1%	90.1%	94.1%
7.0%	$-6552.81	$-7320.58	$-8158.66	$-9071.77	$-10064.84
8.0%	$-5045.97	$-5636.84	$-6281.77	$-6984.40	$-7748.52
9.0%	$-4022.49	$-4493.23	$-5007.01	$-5566.71	$-6175.36
10.0%	$-3287.57	$-3672.07	$-4091.68	$-4548.78	$-5045.82
11.0%	$-2738.19	$-3058.23	$-3407.48	$-3787.90	$-4201.53

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-7.12

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $20.41

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$29.20

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.91%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.91%

Cost of equity (Re)9.12%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.88 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)97.70%

Debt weight (D/V)2.30%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$29.20

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth86.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$267.97M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$29.20

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$466.96M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -1.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$814.22M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$29.20

Current Price$29.20

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$896.55M

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