AHL-PD

AHL-PD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($20.72)
DCF$135315.71+652952.4%
Graham Number
Reverse DCFimplied g: -20.0%
DDM$29.05+40.2%
EV/EBITDA$43.75+111.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $511.82M
Rev: 1.6% / EPS: 157.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$135315.71
Current Price$20.72
Upside / Downside+652952.4%
Net Debt (used)-$2.15B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term149.2%153.2%157.2%161.2%165.2%
7.0%$191945.81$207838.66$224767.61$242782.53$261934.85
8.0%$146388.10$158505.67$171413.11$185148.43$199750.83
9.0%$115565.52$125128.98$135315.71$146155.73$157679.95
10.0%$93528.50$101265.92$109507.54$118277.61$127601.15
11.0%$77132.07$83510.93$90305.37$97535.39$105221.62

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $-0.24
Yahoo: $30.21

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.
Graham Number
Current Price$20.72
Margin of Safety
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$20.72
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-20.0%
Historical Revenue Growth1.6%
Historical Earnings Growth157.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$511.82M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.41

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$29.05
Current Price$20.72
Upside / Downside+40.2%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $493.70M
Current: 0.9×
Default: -$2.15B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$43.75
Current Price$20.72
Upside / Downside+111.1%
Implied EV$465.56M
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$4.15B-$3.15B-$2.15B-$1.15B-$146.20M
-3.1x$44.17$27.42$10.67$-6.08$-22.83
-1.1x$60.71$43.96$27.21$10.46$-6.29
0.9x$77.25$60.50$43.75$27.00$10.25
2.9x$93.79$77.04$60.29$43.54$26.79
4.9x$110.33$93.58$76.83$60.08$43.33