AJG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($229.27)
DCF	$388.14	+69.3%
Graham Number	$108.16	-52.8%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 28.3%
DDM	$57.68	-74.8%
EV/EBITDA	$229.37	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $1.08B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 36.7% / EPS: -48.3%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.90%

Computed WACC: 7.90%

Cost of equity (Re)7.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.66 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.91%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.23%

Debt weight (D/V)18.77%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$500.45

Current Price$229.27

Upside / Downside+118.3%

Net Debt (used)$12.22B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	28.7%	32.7%	36.7%	40.7%	44.7%
7.0%	$459.91	$541.72	$633.87	$737.31	$853.07
8.0%	$352.24	$416.28	$488.40	$569.32	$659.85
9.0%	$278.57	$330.48	$388.90	$454.44	$527.73
10.0%	$225.26	$268.38	$316.91	$371.32	$432.15
11.0%	$185.05	$221.57	$262.64	$308.68	$360.13

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $5.73

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $90.74

Results

Graham Number$108.16

Current Price$229.27

Margin of Safety-52.8%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.90%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.90%

Cost of equity (Re)7.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.66 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)9.91%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.23%

Debt weight (D/V)18.77%

Results

Current Price$229.27

Implied Near-term FCF Growth24.4%

Historical Revenue Growth36.7%

Historical Earnings Growth-48.3%

Base FCF (TTM)$1.08B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.80

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$57.68

Current Price$229.27

Upside / Downside-74.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $3.48B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 20.5×

Net Debt($B)Default: $12.22B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$229.37

Current Price$229.27

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$71.19B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$6.22B	$9.22B	$12.22B	$15.22B	$18.22B
16.5x	$198.58	$186.91	$175.24	$163.57	$151.90
18.5x	$225.64	$213.97	$202.30	$190.63	$178.96
20.5x	$252.70	$241.03	$229.37	$217.70	$206.03
22.5x	$279.77	$268.10	$256.43	$244.76	$233.09
24.5x	$306.83	$295.16	$283.49	$271.82	$260.15

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