ALEX

ALEX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($20.83)
DCF$20.04-3.8%
Graham Number$17.55-15.7%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 5.5%
DDM$21.22+1.9%
EV/EBITDA$20.85+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $111.19M
Rev: -17.6% / EPS: -69.7%
Computed: 7.04%
Computed WACC: 7.04%
Cost of equity (Re)9.39%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.93 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)74.96%
Debt weight (D/V)25.04%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$31.75
Current Price$20.83
Upside / Downside+52.4%
Net Debt (used)$493.12M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$20.27$25.73$32.09$39.46$47.94
8.0%$15.45$19.86$24.97$30.88$37.67
9.0%$12.12$15.79$20.04$24.94$30.58
10.0%$9.67$12.80$16.42$20.59$25.38
11.0%$7.80$10.52$13.66$17.27$21.42

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $1.01
Yahoo: $13.56

Results

Graham Number$17.55
Current Price$20.83
Margin of Safety-15.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 7.04%
Computed WACC: 7.04%
Cost of equity (Re)9.39%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.93 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)74.96%
Debt weight (D/V)25.04%

Results

Current Price$20.83
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-0.3%
Historical Revenue Growth-17.6%
Historical Earnings Growth-69.7%
Base FCF (TTM)$111.19M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.03

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$21.22
Current Price$20.83
Upside / Downside+1.9%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $114.20M
Current: 17.6×
Default: $493.12M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$20.85
Current Price$20.83
Upside / Downside+0.1%
Implied EV$2.01B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.51B-$506.88M$493.12M$1.49B$2.49B
13.6x$42.04$28.31$14.57$0.84$-12.89
15.6x$45.17$31.44$17.71$3.98$-9.76
17.6x$48.31$34.58$20.85$7.11$-6.62
19.6x$51.45$37.71$23.98$10.25$-3.48
21.6x$54.58$40.85$27.12$13.39$-0.35