ALHC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($19.65)
DCF	$98.70	+402.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 13.8%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$20.06	+2.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $125.13M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 44.4% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.00%

Computed WACC: 10.00%

Cost of equity (Re)10.84%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.22%

Debt weight (D/V)7.78%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$82.24

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside+318.5%

Net Debt (used)-$272.63M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	36.4%	40.4%	44.4%	48.4%	52.4%
7.0%	$117.35	$135.04	$154.85	$176.96	$201.56
8.0%	$92.24	$106.04	$121.48	$138.72	$157.89
9.0%	$75.09	$86.23	$98.70	$112.60	$128.07
10.0%	$62.70	$71.92	$82.24	$93.74	$106.53
11.0%	$53.38	$61.16	$69.86	$79.55	$90.33

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.11

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $0.88

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$19.65

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.00%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.00%

Cost of equity (Re)10.84%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.19 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.22%

Debt weight (D/V)7.78%

Results

Current Price$19.65

Implied Near-term FCF Growth16.6%

Historical Revenue Growth44.4%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$125.13M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $46.75M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 80.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$272.63M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$20.06

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside+2.1%

Implied EV$3.74B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.27B	-$1.27B	-$272.63M	$727.37M	$1.73B
76.0x	$29.12	$24.13	$19.13	$14.13	$9.13
78.0x	$29.59	$24.59	$19.60	$14.60	$9.60
80.0x	$30.06	$25.06	$20.06	$15.07	$10.07
82.0x	$30.53	$25.53	$20.53	$15.53	$10.53
84.0x	$30.99	$26.00	$21.00	$16.00	$11.00

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