ALK — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($50.77)
DCF	$-72.08	-242.0%
Graham Number	$25.80	-49.2%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$50.77	-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$199.00M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 2.8% / EPS: -68.3%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.92%

Computed WACC: 4.92%

Cost of equity (Re)10.75%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.17 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.78%

Debt weight (D/V)54.22%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-124.11

Current Price$50.77

Upside / Downside-344.5%

Net Debt (used)$4.77B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-72.34	$-78.56	$-85.79	$-94.16	$-103.80
8.0%	$-66.88	$-71.88	$-77.69	$-84.41	$-92.13
9.0%	$-63.09	$-67.25	$-72.08	$-77.66	$-84.07
10.0%	$-60.30	$-63.86	$-67.97	$-72.72	$-78.16
11.0%	$-58.17	$-61.26	$-64.83	$-68.94	$-73.66

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.83

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $35.64

Results

Graham Number$25.80

Current Price$50.77

Margin of Safety-49.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.92%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.92%

Cost of equity (Re)10.75%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.17 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)45.78%

Debt weight (D/V)54.22%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$50.77

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth2.8%

Historical Earnings Growth-68.3%

Base FCF (TTM)-$199.00M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$50.77

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.27B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 8.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: $4.77B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$50.77

Current Price$50.77

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$10.59B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$2.77B	$3.77B	$4.77B	$5.77B	$6.77B
4.3x	$23.87	$15.14	$6.42	$-2.30	$-11.03
6.3x	$46.04	$37.32	$28.59	$19.87	$11.15
8.3x	$68.21	$59.49	$50.77	$42.04	$33.32
10.3x	$90.39	$81.66	$72.94	$64.22	$55.49
12.3x	$112.56	$103.84	$95.11	$86.39	$77.67

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