ALKS — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($30.25)
DCF	$-35.47	-217.2%
Graham Number	$22.29	-26.3%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$30.53	+0.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$363.09M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -10.6% / EPS: -67.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.91%

Computed WACC: 6.91%

Cost of equity (Re)7.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.49 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)98.62%

Debt weight (D/V)1.38%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-53.99

Current Price$30.25

Upside / Downside-278.5%

Net Debt (used)-$518.22M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-35.80	$-43.67	$-52.83	$-63.44	$-75.65
8.0%	$-28.87	$-35.21	$-42.57	$-51.08	$-60.87
9.0%	$-24.07	$-29.35	$-35.47	$-42.53	$-50.65
10.0%	$-20.54	$-25.05	$-30.26	$-36.27	$-43.17
11.0%	$-17.85	$-21.76	$-26.28	$-31.49	$-37.46

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.01

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $10.99

Results

Graham Number$22.29

Current Price$30.25

Margin of Safety-26.3%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.91%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.91%

Cost of equity (Re)7.01%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.49 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)98.62%

Debt weight (D/V)1.38%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$30.25

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-10.6%

Historical Earnings Growth-67.0%

Base FCF (TTM)-$363.09M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$30.25

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $281.12M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 16.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$518.22M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$30.53

Current Price$30.25

Upside / Downside+0.9%

Implied EV$4.52B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.52B	-$1.52B	-$518.22M	$481.78M	$1.48B
12.1x	$35.83	$29.78	$23.72	$17.66	$11.61
14.1x	$39.24	$33.18	$27.13	$21.07	$15.01
16.1x	$42.64	$36.59	$30.53	$24.47	$18.42
18.1x	$46.05	$39.99	$33.94	$27.88	$21.82
20.1x	$49.45	$43.40	$37.34	$31.28	$25.23

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