ALRM — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($47.48)
DCF	$46.58	-1.9%
Graham Number	$30.12	-36.6%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 18.2%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$48.50	+2.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $65.54M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 8.0% / EPS: 17.9%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.99%

Computed WACC: 5.99%

Cost of equity (Re)8.69%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.80 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)68.98%

Debt weight (D/V)31.02%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$94.44

Current Price$47.48

Upside / Downside+98.9%

Net Debt (used)$105.06M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	9.9%	13.9%	17.9%	21.9%	25.9%
7.0%	$50.29	$59.99	$71.10	$83.79	$98.21
8.0%	$40.02	$47.71	$56.52	$66.58	$78.00
9.0%	$32.95	$39.26	$46.50	$54.74	$64.10
10.0%	$27.79	$33.11	$39.20	$46.13	$53.99
11.0%	$23.88	$28.44	$33.65	$39.59	$46.32

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.36

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $17.09

Results

Graham Number$30.12

Current Price$47.48

Margin of Safety-36.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.99%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.99%

Cost of equity (Re)8.69%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.80 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)68.98%

Debt weight (D/V)31.02%

Results

Current Price$47.48

Implied Near-term FCF Growth7.2%

Historical Revenue Growth8.0%

Historical Earnings Growth17.9%

Base FCF (TTM)$65.54M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$47.48

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $158.51M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 15.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: $105.06M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$48.50

Current Price$47.48

Upside / Downside+2.2%

Implied EV$2.52B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.89B	-$894.94M	$105.06M	$1.11B	$2.11B
11.9x	$75.89	$55.84	$35.79	$15.74	$-4.30
13.9x	$82.25	$62.20	$42.15	$22.10	$2.05
15.9x	$88.60	$68.55	$48.50	$28.46	$8.41
17.9x	$94.96	$74.91	$54.86	$34.81	$14.76
19.9x	$101.31	$81.26	$61.22	$41.17	$21.12

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