ALSN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($126.91)
DCF	$21522.01	+16858.5%
Graham Number	$32.08	-74.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 9.0%
DDM	$23.90	-81.2%
EV/EBITDA	$155.91	+22.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $466.75M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 20.4% / EPS: 117.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.70%

Computed WACC: 9.70%

Cost of equity (Re)9.70%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.98 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)100.00%

Debt weight (D/V)0.00%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$18576.05

Current Price$126.91

Upside / Downside+14537.2%

Net Debt (used)-$127.00M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	109.0%	113.0%	117.0%	121.0%	125.0%
7.0%	$29379.16	$32294.50	$35436.96	$38819.56	$42455.83
8.0%	$22505.22	$24737.24	$27143.09	$29732.73	$32516.50
9.0%	$17846.41	$19615.36	$21522.01	$23574.28	$25780.33
10.0%	$14509.08	$15946.34	$17495.44	$19162.79	$20955.05
11.0%	$12020.77	$13210.75	$14493.28	$15873.69	$17357.46

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $7.34

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $6.23

Results

Graham Number$32.08

Current Price$126.91

Margin of Safety-74.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.70%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.70%

Cost of equity (Re)9.70%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.98 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)100.00%

Debt weight (D/V)0.00%

Results

Current Price$126.91

Implied Near-term FCF Growth10.9%

Historical Revenue Growth20.4%

Historical Earnings Growth117.0%

Base FCF (TTM)$466.75M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.16

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$23.90

Current Price$126.91

Upside / Downside-81.2%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.04B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 12.3×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$127.00M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$155.91

Current Price$126.91

Upside / Downside+22.8%

Implied EV$12.78B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.13B	-$1.13B	-$127.00M	$873.00M	$1.87B
8.3x	$129.92	$117.84	$105.77	$93.69	$81.61
10.3x	$154.99	$142.91	$130.84	$118.76	$106.68
12.3x	$180.06	$167.98	$155.91	$143.83	$131.75
14.3x	$205.13	$193.05	$180.98	$168.90	$156.82
16.3x	$230.20	$218.13	$206.05	$193.97	$181.90

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