ALV

ALV — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($116.98)
DCF$121.72+4.1%
Graham Number$86.01-26.5%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 7.1%
DDM$67.77-42.1%
EV/EBITDA$117.13+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $525.50M
Rev: 7.7% / EPS: -4.2%
Computed: 10.27%
Computed WACC: 10.27%
Cost of equity (Re)11.65%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)6.33%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)79.31%
Debt weight (D/V)20.69%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$97.34
Current Price$116.98
Upside / Downside-16.8%
Net Debt (used)$1.71B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-0.3%3.7%7.7%11.7%15.7%
7.0%$125.45$154.94$189.14$228.61$273.93
8.0%$98.36$122.02$149.41$180.99$217.21
9.0%$79.63$99.26$121.96$148.10$178.05
10.0%$65.90$82.59$101.87$124.04$149.43
11.0%$55.41$69.87$86.55$105.70$127.61

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $9.55
Yahoo: $34.43

Results

Graham Number$86.01
Current Price$116.98
Margin of Safety-26.5%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 10.27%
Computed WACC: 10.27%
Cost of equity (Re)11.65%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.34 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)6.33%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)79.31%
Debt weight (D/V)20.69%

Results

Current Price$116.98
Implied Near-term FCF Growth10.4%
Historical Revenue Growth7.7%
Historical Earnings Growth-4.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$525.50M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $3.29

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$67.77
Current Price$116.98
Upside / Downside-42.1%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.51B
Current: 6.9×
Default: $1.71B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$117.13
Current Price$116.98
Upside / Downside+0.1%
Implied EV$10.46B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$1.71B$1.71B$1.71B$1.71B$1.71B
2.9x$36.05$36.05$36.05$36.05$36.05
4.9x$76.59$76.59$76.59$76.59$76.59
6.9x$117.13$117.13$117.13$117.13$117.13
8.9x$157.66$157.66$157.66$157.66$157.66
10.9x$198.20$198.20$198.20$198.20$198.20