ALX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($235.53)
DCF	$-8.42	-103.6%
Graham Number	$51.38	-78.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 23.1%
DDM	$370.80	+57.4%
EV/EBITDA	$234.62	-0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $38.71M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -4.7% / EPS: -68.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 7.04%

Computed WACC: 7.04%

Cost of equity (Re)8.63%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.79 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)6.07%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)58.57%

Debt weight (D/V)41.43%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$49.73

Current Price$235.53

Upside / Downside-78.9%

Net Debt (used)$722.58M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-7.27	$19.87	$51.44	$87.98	$130.07
8.0%	$-31.15	$-9.31	$16.06	$45.39	$79.13
9.0%	$-47.70	$-29.51	$-8.42	$15.94	$43.92
10.0%	$-59.85	$-44.33	$-26.36	$-5.64	$18.13
11.0%	$-69.15	$-55.67	$-40.08	$-22.13	$-1.55

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $5.49

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $21.37

Results

Graham Number$51.38

Current Price$235.53

Margin of Safety-78.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 7.04%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 7.04%

Cost of equity (Re)8.63%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.79 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)6.07%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)58.57%

Debt weight (D/V)41.43%

Results

Current Price$235.53

Implied Near-term FCF Growth16.1%

Historical Revenue Growth-4.7%

Historical Earnings Growth-68.8%

Base FCF (TTM)$38.71M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $18.00

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$370.80

Current Price$235.53

Upside / Downside+57.4%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $100.25M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 19.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $722.58M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$234.62

Current Price$235.53

Upside / Downside-0.4%

Implied EV$1.92B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.28B	-$277.42M	$722.58M	$1.72B	$2.72B
15.2x	$547.70	$351.90	$156.10	$-39.70	$-235.50
17.2x	$586.95	$391.16	$195.36	$-0.44	$-196.24
19.2x	$626.21	$430.41	$234.62	$38.82	$-156.98
21.2x	$665.47	$469.67	$273.87	$78.08	$-117.72
23.2x	$704.73	$508.93	$313.13	$117.33	$-78.46

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