AMCR — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($46.65)
DCF	$444.06	+851.9%
Graham Number	$27.45	-41.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 32.3%
DDM	$53.56	+14.8%
EV/EBITDA	$48.15	+3.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $446.25M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 68.1% / EPS: -32.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.77%

Computed WACC: 5.77%

Cost of equity (Re)7.79%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.64 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.87%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)57.15%

Debt weight (D/V)42.85%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1102.23

Current Price$46.65

Upside / Downside+2262.8%

Net Debt (used)$15.10B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	60.1%	64.1%	68.1%	72.1%	76.1%
7.0%	$571.34	$650.02	$736.72	$832.04	$936.60
8.0%	$435.21	$496.03	$563.04	$636.70	$717.51
9.0%	$342.58	$391.25	$444.87	$503.80	$568.44
10.0%	$275.93	$315.86	$359.84	$408.18	$461.20
11.0%	$226.00	$259.38	$296.15	$336.56	$380.87

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.33

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $25.18

Results

Graham Number$27.45

Current Price$46.65

Margin of Safety-41.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.77%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.77%

Cost of equity (Re)7.79%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.64 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.87%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)57.15%

Debt weight (D/V)42.85%

Results

Current Price$46.65

Implied Near-term FCF Growth18.5%

Historical Revenue Growth68.1%

Historical Earnings Growth-32.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$446.25M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.60

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$53.56

Current Price$46.65

Upside / Downside+14.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $2.84B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $15.10B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$48.15

Current Price$46.65

Upside / Downside+3.2%

Implied EV$37.35B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$7.10B	$11.10B	$15.10B	$19.10B	$23.10B
9.1x	$40.84	$32.18	$23.52	$14.86	$6.21
11.1x	$53.15	$44.49	$35.84	$27.18	$18.52
13.1x	$65.47	$56.81	$48.15	$39.49	$30.84
15.1x	$77.78	$69.12	$60.47	$51.81	$43.15
17.1x	$90.10	$81.44	$72.78	$64.12	$55.47

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