AMGN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($387.96)
DCF	$43961.79	+11231.5%
Graham Number	$71.78	-81.5%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 16.4%
DDM	$199.00	-48.7%
EV/EBITDA	$388.16	+0.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $7.50B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 8.6% / EPS: 112.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.25%

Computed WACC: 6.25%

Cost of equity (Re)6.90%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.47 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.80%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)79.05%

Debt weight (D/V)20.95%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$91097.97

Current Price$387.96

Upside / Downside+23381.3%

Net Debt (used)$46.31B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	104.1%	108.1%	112.1%	116.1%	120.1%
7.0%	$59602.12	$65671.52	$72225.25	$79291.73	$86900.51
8.0%	$45670.47	$50320.46	$55341.36	$60754.94	$66583.82
9.0%	$36225.60	$39913.40	$43895.23	$48188.36	$52810.71
10.0%	$29457.64	$32456.04	$35693.39	$39183.74	$42941.63
11.0%	$24409.72	$26893.99	$29576.15	$32467.82	$35581.05

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $14.25

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $16.07

Results

Graham Number$71.78

Current Price$387.96

Margin of Safety-81.5%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.25%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.25%

Cost of equity (Re)6.90%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.47 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.80%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)79.05%

Debt weight (D/V)20.95%

Results

Current Price$387.96

Implied Near-term FCF Growth6.7%

Historical Revenue Growth8.6%

Historical Earnings Growth112.1%

Base FCF (TTM)$7.50B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $9.66

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$199.00

Current Price$387.96

Upside / Downside-48.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $16.62B

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 15.4×

Net Debt($B)Default: $46.31B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$388.16

Current Price$387.96

Upside / Downside+0.1%

Implied EV$255.55B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$22.31B	$34.31B	$46.31B	$58.31B	$70.31B
11.4x	$309.38	$287.12	$264.86	$242.60	$220.34
13.4x	$371.03	$348.77	$326.51	$304.25	$281.99
15.4x	$432.69	$410.42	$388.16	$365.90	$343.64
17.4x	$494.34	$472.08	$449.82	$427.55	$405.29
19.4x	$555.99	$533.73	$511.47	$489.21	$466.94

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