AMSF

AMSF — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($33.62)
DCF$51.47+53.1%
Graham Number$27.99-16.7%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 2.1%
DDM$32.55-3.2%
EV/EBITDA$32.29-4.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $37.76M
Rev: 10.2% / EPS: -19.2%
Computed: 6.35%
Computed WACC: 6.35%
Cost of equity (Re)6.35%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.37 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)99.92%
Debt weight (D/V)0.08%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$86.43
Current Price$33.62
Upside / Downside+157.1%
Net Debt (used)-$75.67M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term2.2%6.2%10.2%14.2%18.2%
7.0%$53.26$62.88$74.01$86.82$101.49
8.0%$44.09$51.78$60.67$70.89$82.59
9.0%$37.75$44.12$51.47$59.91$69.56
10.0%$33.11$38.51$44.74$51.88$60.04
11.0%$29.57$34.24$39.61$45.77$52.79

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.60
Yahoo: $13.39

Results

Graham Number$27.99
Current Price$33.62
Margin of Safety-16.7%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Computed: 6.35%
Computed WACC: 6.35%
Cost of equity (Re)6.35%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.37 × ERP 5.50%)
Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)
Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)
Equity weight (E/V)99.92%
Debt weight (D/V)0.08%

Results

Current Price$33.62
Implied Near-term FCF Growth-5.8%
Historical Revenue Growth10.2%
Historical Earnings Growth-19.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$37.76M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.58

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$32.55
Current Price$33.62
Upside / Downside-3.2%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $59.59M
Current: 9.0×
Default: -$75.67M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$32.29
Current Price$33.62
Upside / Downside-4.0%
Implied EV$535.32M
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$2.08B-$1.08B-$75.67M$924.33M$1.92B
5.0x$125.37$72.53$19.69$-33.15$-85.99
7.0x$131.67$78.83$25.99$-26.85$-79.70
9.0x$137.97$85.13$32.29$-20.56$-73.40
11.0x$144.27$91.43$38.58$-14.26$-67.10
13.0x$150.57$97.72$44.88$-7.96$-60.80