APLD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($27.93)
DCF	$-1304143.12	-4669427.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$30.16	+8.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$1.61B

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 250.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 32.83%

Computed WACC: 32.83%

Cost of equity (Re)43.80%(Rf 4.30% + β 7.18 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)74.96%

Debt weight (D/V)25.04%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-58714.17

Current Price$27.93

Upside / Downside-210319.0%

Net Debt (used)$695.24M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	242.1%	246.1%	250.1%	254.1%	258.1%
7.0%	$-1947352.98	$-2063878.51	$-2185916.71	$-2313660.92	$-2447308.93
8.0%	$-1477662.12	$-1566079.13	$-1658678.92	$-1755608.18	$-1857016.98
9.0%	$-1160557.81	$-1229997.93	$-1302722.98	$-1378848.16	$-1458491.33
10.0%	$-934365.83	$-990269.75	$-1048818.17	$-1110103.83	$-1174221.60
11.0%	$-766491.61	$-812349.37	$-860376.33	$-910648.56	$-963243.88

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.39

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $5.19

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$27.93

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 32.83%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 32.83%

Cost of equity (Re)43.80%(Rf 4.30% + β 7.18 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)74.96%

Debt weight (D/V)25.04%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$27.93

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth250.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$1.61B

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$27.93

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $21.41M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 426.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $695.24M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$30.16

Current Price$27.93

Upside / Downside+8.0%

Implied EV$9.13B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.30B	-$304.76M	$695.24M	$1.70B	$2.70B
422.2x	$37.00	$33.43	$29.85	$26.27	$22.70
424.2x	$37.16	$33.58	$30.00	$26.43	$22.85
426.2x	$37.31	$33.73	$30.16	$26.58	$23.00
428.2x	$37.46	$33.89	$30.31	$26.73	$23.16
430.2x	$37.62	$34.04	$30.46	$26.89	$23.31

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