APLS — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($20.59)
DCF	$-2.18	-110.6%
Graham Number	$3.44	-83.3%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$20.96	+1.8%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$15.46M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -5.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 4.76%

Computed WACC: 4.76%

Cost of equity (Re)5.61%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.73%

Debt weight (D/V)15.27%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-6.21

Current Price$20.59

Upside / Downside-130.2%

Net Debt (used)$6.57M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-2.19	$-2.63	$-3.13	$-3.71	$-4.39
8.0%	$-1.81	$-2.16	$-2.57	$-3.03	$-3.57
9.0%	$-1.55	$-1.84	$-2.18	$-2.56	$-3.01
10.0%	$-1.35	$-1.60	$-1.89	$-2.22	$-2.60
11.0%	$-1.21	$-1.42	$-1.67	$-1.96	$-2.28

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.18

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $2.92

Results

Graham Number$3.44

Current Price$20.59

Margin of Safety-83.3%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 4.76%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 4.76%

Cost of equity (Re)5.61%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)84.73%

Debt weight (D/V)15.27%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$20.59

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-5.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$15.46M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$20.59

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $56.98M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 47.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $6.57M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$20.96

Current Price$20.59

Upside / Downside+1.8%

Implied EV$2.69B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.99B	-$993.43M	$6.57M	$1.01B	$2.01B
43.1x	$34.82	$27.00	$19.18	$11.35	$3.53
45.1x	$35.71	$27.89	$20.07	$12.25	$4.42
47.1x	$36.61	$28.78	$20.96	$13.14	$5.31
49.1x	$37.50	$29.67	$21.85	$14.03	$6.21
51.1x	$38.39	$30.57	$22.74	$14.92	$7.10

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