APOG — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($38.29)
DCF	$32.45	-15.2%
Graham Number	$31.67	-17.3%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 7.1%
DDM	$22.25	-41.9%
EV/EBITDA	$38.29	-0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $54.78M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 2.1% / EPS: -19.8%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.10%

Computed WACC: 8.10%

Cost of equity (Re)10.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.06 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.55%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)72.51%

Debt weight (D/V)27.49%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$39.72

Current Price$38.29

Upside / Downside+3.7%

Net Debt (used)$263.69M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$32.84	$41.96	$52.57	$64.85	$78.99
8.0%	$24.81	$32.15	$40.68	$50.53	$61.87
9.0%	$19.25	$25.36	$32.45	$40.64	$50.04
10.0%	$15.17	$20.38	$26.42	$33.38	$41.37
11.0%	$12.05	$16.58	$21.81	$27.85	$34.76

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $1.87

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $23.83

Results

Graham Number$31.67

Current Price$38.29

Margin of Safety-17.3%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.10%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.10%

Cost of equity (Re)10.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.06 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)3.55%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)72.51%

Debt weight (D/V)27.49%

Results

Current Price$38.29

Implied Near-term FCF Growth4.5%

Historical Revenue Growth2.1%

Historical Earnings Growth-19.8%

Base FCF (TTM)$54.78M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.08

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$22.25

Current Price$38.29

Upside / Downside-41.9%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $162.43M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $263.69M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$38.29

Current Price$38.29

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$1.09B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.74B	-$736.31M	$263.69M	$1.26B	$2.26B
2.7x	$101.06	$54.57	$8.08	$-38.41	$-84.90
4.7x	$116.17	$69.68	$23.19	$-23.30	$-69.79
6.7x	$131.27	$84.78	$38.29	$-8.20	$-54.69
8.7x	$146.37	$99.88	$53.39	$6.90	$-39.59
10.7x	$161.47	$114.98	$68.49	$22.00	$-24.49

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