AQN

AQN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($6.96)
DCF$-23.91-443.6%
Graham Number$3.02-56.6%
Reverse DCF
DDM$5.36-23.0%
EV/EBITDA$7.76+11.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$682.36M
Rev: 1.7% / EPS: —
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-23.91
Current Price$6.96
Upside / Downside-443.6%
Net Debt (used)$6.39B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$-24.05$-27.23$-30.93$-35.21$-40.15
8.0%$-21.25$-23.81$-26.78$-30.22$-34.18
9.0%$-19.31$-21.44$-23.91$-26.77$-30.05
10.0%$-17.89$-19.71$-21.81$-24.24$-27.03
11.0%$-16.80$-18.38$-20.20$-22.31$-24.72

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.07
Yahoo: $5.81

Results

Graham Number$3.02
Current Price$6.96
Margin of Safety-56.6%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$6.96
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth1.7%
Historical Earnings Growth
Base FCF (TTM)-$682.36M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $0.26

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$5.36
Current Price$6.96
Upside / Downside-23.0%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $824.66M
Current: 15.0×
Default: $6.39B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$7.76
Current Price$6.96
Upside / Downside+11.5%
Implied EV$12.35B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$2.39B$4.39B$6.39B$8.39B$10.39B
11.0x$8.67$6.07$3.47$0.86$-1.74
13.0x$10.82$8.22$5.61$3.01$0.41
15.0x$12.97$10.36$7.76$5.16$2.55
17.0x$15.11$12.51$9.91$7.30$4.70
19.0x$17.26$14.66$12.05$9.45$6.85