ARCB — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($106.55)
DCF	$46.96	-55.9%
Graham Number	$58.46	-45.1%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 16.6%
DDM	$9.89	-90.7%
EV/EBITDA	$106.80	+0.2%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $79.02M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -2.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 11.51%

Computed WACC: 11.51%

Cost of equity (Re)12.58%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.50 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.61%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)83.77%

Debt weight (D/V)16.23%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$29.43

Current Price$106.55

Upside / Downside-72.4%

Net Debt (used)$340.35M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$47.49	$60.18	$74.95	$92.03	$111.72
8.0%	$36.32	$46.54	$58.40	$72.12	$87.90
9.0%	$28.59	$37.09	$46.96	$58.34	$71.43
10.0%	$22.91	$30.16	$38.57	$48.25	$59.37
11.0%	$18.56	$24.86	$32.15	$40.54	$50.17

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.62

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $57.98

Results

Graham Number$58.46

Current Price$106.55

Margin of Safety-45.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 11.51%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 11.51%

Cost of equity (Re)12.58%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.50 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)7.61%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)83.77%

Debt weight (D/V)16.23%

Results

Current Price$106.55

Implied Near-term FCF Growth23.5%

Historical Revenue Growth-2.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$79.02M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.48

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$9.89

Current Price$106.55

Upside / Downside-90.7%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $254.21M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 10.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $340.35M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$106.80

Current Price$106.55

Upside / Downside+0.2%

Implied EV$2.72B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.66B	-$659.65M	$340.35M	$1.34B	$2.34B
6.7x	$150.90	$106.05	$61.20	$16.34	$-28.51
8.7x	$173.70	$128.85	$84.00	$39.15	$-5.70
10.7x	$196.51	$151.65	$106.80	$61.95	$17.10
12.7x	$219.31	$174.46	$129.61	$84.76	$39.90
14.7x	$242.11	$197.26	$152.41	$107.56	$62.71

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