ARDX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($6.47)
DCF	$0.70	-89.3%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 52.2%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $6.75M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.8% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.70%

Computed WACC: 6.70%

Cost of equity (Re)7.69%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.62 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)87.16%

Debt weight (D/V)12.84%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$1.02

Current Price$6.47

Upside / Downside-84.2%

Net Debt (used)-$30.86M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-0.2%	3.8%	7.8%	11.8%	15.8%
7.0%	$0.71	$0.83	$0.96	$1.11	$1.29
8.0%	$0.60	$0.70	$0.80	$0.93	$1.07
9.0%	$0.53	$0.61	$0.70	$0.80	$0.92
10.0%	$0.48	$0.54	$0.62	$0.70	$0.80
11.0%	$0.43	$0.49	$0.56	$0.63	$0.72

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.26

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $0.68

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$6.47

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.70%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.70%

Cost of equity (Re)7.69%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.62 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)87.16%

Debt weight (D/V)12.84%

Results

Current Price$6.47

Implied Near-term FCF Growth41.7%

Historical Revenue Growth7.8%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$6.75M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$6.47

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$37.92M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -41.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$30.86M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$6.47

Current Price$6.47

Upside / Downside-0.0%

Implied EV$1.56B

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