AREC — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($3.20)
DCF	$-1.37	-142.8%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 38.5%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $4.87M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -99.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.39%

Computed WACC: 6.39%

Cost of equity (Re)10.50%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.13 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.58%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)59.06%

Debt weight (D/V)40.94%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-0.81

Current Price$3.20

Upside / Downside-125.2%

Net Debt (used)$226.59M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-1.36	$-1.19	$-1.00	$-0.77	$-0.51
8.0%	$-1.51	$-1.37	$-1.22	$-1.03	$-0.82
9.0%	$-1.61	$-1.50	$-1.37	$-1.22	$-1.04
10.0%	$-1.69	$-1.59	$-1.48	$-1.35	$-1.20
11.0%	$-1.75	$-1.66	$-1.57	$-1.45	$-1.33

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.41

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-0.94

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$3.20

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.39%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.39%

Cost of equity (Re)10.50%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.13 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.58%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)59.06%

Debt weight (D/V)40.94%

Results

Current Price$3.20

Implied Near-term FCF Growth27.4%

Historical Revenue Growth-99.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$4.87M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$3.20

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: -$19.83M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: -27.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $226.59M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$3.01

Current Price$3.20

Upside / Downside-6.0%

Implied EV$536.67M

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