AREN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($2.92)
DCF	$-180.97	-6308.1%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$2.90	-0.5%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$98.73M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -11.3% / EPS: 33.1%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.86%

Computed WACC: 9.86%

Cost of equity (Re)9.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.86 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)55.06%

Debt weight (D/V)44.94%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-155.71

Current Price$2.92

Upside / Downside-5441.8%

Net Debt (used)$100.41M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	25.1%	29.1%	33.1%	37.1%	41.1%
7.0%	$-207.82	$-241.86	$-280.32	$-323.63	$-372.22
8.0%	$-164.66	$-191.37	$-221.53	$-255.48	$-293.55
9.0%	$-135.11	$-156.80	$-181.28	$-208.83	$-239.71
10.0%	$-113.69	$-131.75	$-152.13	$-175.05	$-200.73
11.0%	$-97.53	$-112.85	$-130.13	$-149.56	$-171.32

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.75

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-0.22

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$2.92

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.86%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.86%

Cost of equity (Re)9.02%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.86 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.79%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)55.06%

Debt weight (D/V)44.94%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$2.92

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-11.3%

Historical Earnings Growth33.1%

Base FCF (TTM)-$98.73M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$2.92

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $47.16M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 5.0×

Net Debt($B)Default: $100.41M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$2.90

Current Price$2.92

Upside / Downside-0.5%

Implied EV$238.06M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.90B	-$899.59M	$100.41M	$1.10B	$2.10B
1.0x	$41.06	$19.99	$-1.07	$-22.14	$-43.21
3.0x	$43.05	$21.98	$0.91	$-20.15	$-41.22
5.0x	$45.04	$23.97	$2.90	$-18.17	$-39.24
7.0x	$47.02	$25.95	$4.89	$-16.18	$-37.25
9.0x	$49.01	$27.94	$6.87	$-14.19	$-35.26

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