ARI — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($10.67)
DCF	$-55.91	-624.0%
Graham Number	$15.70	+47.1%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$20.60	+93.1%
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -1.3% / EPS: -31.0%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 2.04%

Computed WACC: 2.04%

Cost of equity (Re)12.91%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.56 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)15.79%

Debt weight (D/V)84.21%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$10.67

Upside / Downside—

Net Debt (used)$7.80B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91
8.0%	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91
9.0%	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91
10.0%	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91
11.0%	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91	$-55.91

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.82

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $13.36

Results

Graham Number$15.70

Current Price$10.67

Margin of Safety+47.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 2.04%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 2.04%

Cost of equity (Re)12.91%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.56 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)15.79%

Debt weight (D/V)84.21%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$10.67

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth-1.3%

Historical Earnings Growth-31.0%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.00

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$20.60

Current Price$10.67

Upside / Downside+93.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: —

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: —×

Net Debt($B)Default: $7.80B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-55.91

Current Price$10.67

Upside / Downside-624.0%

Implied EV$0

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