ARIS

ARIS — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($22.45)
DCF$297.36+1224.6%
Graham Number$5.81-74.1%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 37.2%
DDM
EV/EBITDA$23.67+5.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $43.89M
Rev: 91.6% / EPS: —
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$297.36
Current Price$22.45
Upside / Downside+1224.6%
Net Debt (used)$99.96M
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term83.6%87.6%91.6%95.6%99.6%
7.0%$392.52$437.07$485.57$538.28$595.48
8.0%$301.94$336.18$373.47$413.98$457.95
9.0%$240.45$267.70$297.36$329.60$364.58
10.0%$196.31$218.55$242.75$269.05$297.58
11.0%$163.34$181.82$201.94$223.81$247.53

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.27
Yahoo: $5.56

Results

Graham Number$5.81
Current Price$22.45
Margin of Safety-74.1%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$22.45
Implied Near-term FCF Growth37.2%
Historical Revenue Growth91.6%
Historical Earnings Growth
Base FCF (TTM)$43.89M
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$22.45
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $323.84M
Current: 15.3×
Default: $99.96M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$23.67
Current Price$22.45
Upside / Downside+5.4%
Implied EV$4.94B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.90B-$900.04M$99.96M$1.10B$2.10B
11.3x$27.12$22.23$17.34$12.45$7.56
13.3x$30.28$25.40$20.51$15.62$10.73
15.3x$33.45$28.56$23.67$18.78$13.90
17.3x$36.62$31.73$26.84$21.95$17.06
19.3x$39.78$34.90$30.01$25.12$20.23