ARKO — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($6.30)
DCF	$-14.63	-332.2%
Graham Number	$2.44	-61.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 32.2%
DDM	$2.47	-60.8%
EV/EBITDA	$7.17	+13.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $36.21M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -10.7% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.37%

Computed WACC: 8.37%

Cost of equity (Re)9.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.87 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)10.36%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)21.60%

Debt weight (D/V)78.40%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-14.01

Current Price$6.30

Upside / Downside-322.4%

Net Debt (used)$2.27B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-14.58	$-13.42	$-12.06	$-10.50	$-8.69
8.0%	$-15.60	$-14.67	$-13.58	$-12.32	$-10.88
9.0%	$-16.31	$-15.53	$-14.63	$-13.59	$-12.39
10.0%	$-16.83	$-16.17	$-15.40	$-14.51	$-13.49
11.0%	$-17.23	$-16.66	$-15.99	$-15.22	$-14.34

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.11

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $2.41

Results

Graham Number$2.44

Current Price$6.30

Margin of Safety-61.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.37%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.37%

Cost of equity (Re)9.07%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.87 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)10.36%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)21.60%

Debt weight (D/V)78.40%

Results

Current Price$6.30

Implied Near-term FCF Growth30.0%

Historical Revenue Growth-10.7%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$36.21M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.12

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$2.47

Current Price$6.30

Upside / Downside-60.8%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $233.37M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 13.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $2.27B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$7.17

Current Price$6.30

Upside / Downside+13.7%

Implied EV$3.06B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	$265.87M	$1.27B	$2.27B	$3.27B	$4.27B
9.1x	$16.74	$7.76	$-1.21	$-10.19	$-19.16
11.1x	$20.93	$11.95	$2.98	$-6.00	$-14.97
13.1x	$25.11	$16.14	$7.17	$-1.81	$-10.78
15.1x	$29.30	$20.33	$11.35	$2.38	$-6.59
17.1x	$33.49	$24.52	$15.54	$6.57	$-2.40

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