ARL — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($17.24)
DCF	$-145.96	-946.6%
Graham Number	$17.43	+1.1%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$29.63	+71.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$104.18M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 7.7% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.98%

Computed WACC: 5.98%

Cost of equity (Re)8.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.26%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)55.09%

Debt weight (D/V)44.91%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-266.59

Current Price$17.24

Upside / Downside-1646.4%

Net Debt (used)$215.07M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-0.3%	3.7%	7.7%	11.7%	15.7%
7.0%	$-149.37	$-176.41	$-207.77	$-243.96	$-285.52
8.0%	$-124.54	$-146.23	$-171.35	$-200.30	$-233.51
9.0%	$-107.36	$-125.36	$-146.18	$-170.14	$-197.61
10.0%	$-94.77	$-110.08	$-127.76	$-148.09	$-171.36
11.0%	$-85.16	$-98.41	$-113.71	$-131.27	$-151.35

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.36

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $37.52

Results

Graham Number$17.43

Current Price$17.24

Margin of Safety+1.1%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.98%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.98%

Cost of equity (Re)8.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.69 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)4.26%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)55.09%

Debt weight (D/V)44.91%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$17.24

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth7.7%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$104.18M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$17.24

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $6.63M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 104.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $215.07M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$29.63

Current Price$17.24

Upside / Downside+71.9%

Implied EV$693.67M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.78B	-$784.93M	$215.07M	$1.22B	$2.22B
100.7x	$151.81	$89.90	$27.99	$-33.92	$-95.83
102.7x	$152.63	$90.72	$28.81	$-33.10	$-95.01
104.7x	$153.45	$91.54	$29.63	$-32.28	$-94.19
106.7x	$154.28	$92.36	$30.45	$-31.46	$-93.37
108.7x	$155.10	$93.18	$31.27	$-30.64	$-92.55

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