ARLP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($26.96)
DCF	$8377154.71	+31072432.3%
Graham Number	$27.83	+3.2%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 3.9%
DDM	$51.50	+91.0%
EV/EBITDA	$27.15	+0.7%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $233.87M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -9.2% / EPS: 389.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 5.21%

Computed WACC: 5.21%

Cost of equity (Re)5.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.29 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)88.08%

Debt weight (D/V)11.92%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$27056147.85

Current Price$26.96

Upside / Downside+100356531.5%

Net Debt (used)$397.29M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	381.7%	385.7%	389.7%	393.7%	397.7%
7.0%	$13014287.95	$13563674.72	$14131460.34	$14718103.13	$15324068.96
8.0%	$9845097.66	$10260697.65	$10690215.94	$11133999.23	$11592399.93
9.0%	$7708429.40	$8033830.42	$8370128.97	$8717596.47	$9076508.87
10.0%	$6186645.61	$6447804.96	$6717710.36	$6996579.67	$7284634.33
11.0%	$5059058.06	$5272616.68	$5493327.20	$5721367.76	$5956919.44

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $2.40

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $14.35

Results

Graham Number$27.83

Current Price$26.96

Margin of Safety+3.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 5.21%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 5.21%

Cost of equity (Re)5.92%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.29 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)88.08%

Debt weight (D/V)11.92%

Results

Current Price$26.96

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-8.9%

Historical Revenue Growth-9.2%

Historical Earnings Growth389.7%

Base FCF (TTM)$233.87M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $2.50

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$51.50

Current Price$26.96

Upside / Downside+91.0%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $678.70M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 5.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $397.29M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$27.15

Current Price$26.96

Upside / Downside+0.7%

Implied EV$3.88B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.60B	-$602.71M	$397.29M	$1.40B	$2.40B
1.7x	$21.58	$13.79	$6.01	$-1.78	$-9.57
3.7x	$32.15	$24.36	$16.58	$8.79	$1.00
5.7x	$42.72	$34.93	$27.15	$19.36	$11.57
7.7x	$53.29	$45.50	$37.71	$29.93	$22.14
9.7x	$63.86	$56.07	$48.28	$40.50	$32.71

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