ARQ — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($3.50)
DCF	$-18.33	-623.6%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$3.50	+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$42.97M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 0.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 18.53%

Computed WACC: 18.53%

Cost of equity (Re)22.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.38 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.04%

Debt weight (D/V)18.96%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-7.72

Current Price$3.50

Upside / Downside-320.4%

Net Debt (used)$27.93M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-18.48	$-22.08	$-26.27	$-31.13	$-36.72
8.0%	$-15.31	$-18.21	$-21.58	$-25.47	$-29.95
9.0%	$-13.11	$-15.52	$-18.33	$-21.56	$-25.28
10.0%	$-11.49	$-13.56	$-15.94	$-18.69	$-21.85
11.0%	$-10.26	$-12.05	$-14.12	$-16.50	$-19.24

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.09

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $5.09

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$3.50

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 18.53%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 18.53%

Cost of equity (Re)22.86%(Rf 4.30% + β 3.38 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)81.04%

Debt weight (D/V)18.96%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$3.50

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth0.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$42.97M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$3.50

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $9.46M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 18.8×

Net Debt($B)Default: $27.93M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$3.50

Current Price$3.50

Upside / Downside+0.0%

Implied EV$177.37M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.97B	-$972.07M	$27.93M	$1.03B	$2.03B
14.8x	$49.46	$26.04	$2.61	$-20.81	$-44.23
16.8x	$49.90	$26.48	$3.06	$-20.37	$-43.79
18.8x	$50.35	$26.92	$3.50	$-19.92	$-43.35
20.8x	$50.79	$27.37	$3.94	$-19.48	$-42.90
22.8x	$51.23	$27.81	$4.39	$-19.04	$-42.46

← Overview Financial Statements ← Companies