ARX

ARX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($11.81)
DCF$-8892.37-75363.4%
Graham Number
Reverse DCF
DDM
EV/EBITDA$23.09+95.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$3.48B
Rev: 57.1% / EPS: —
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-8877.11
Current Price$11.81
Upside / Downside-75234.2%
Net Debt (used)-$1.54B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term49.1%53.1%57.1%61.1%65.1%
7.0%$-10952.26$-12485.99$-14187.53$-16070.30$-18148.45
8.0%$-8519.60$-9709.44$-11029.23$-12489.36$-14100.77
9.0%$-6861.76$-7817.35$-8877.11$-10049.37$-11342.89
10.0%$-5666.91$-6453.76$-7326.22$-8291.14$-9355.69
11.0%$-4770.12$-5430.41$-6162.39$-6971.79$-7864.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $-6.33
Yahoo: $3.05

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.
Graham Number
Current Price$11.81
Margin of Safety
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$11.81
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth57.1%
Historical Earnings Growth
Base FCF (TTM)-$3.48B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: —

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.
DDM Intrinsic Value / share
Current Price$11.81
Upside / Downside
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $88.40M
Current: 12.5×
Default: -$1.54B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$23.09
Current Price$11.81
Upside / Downside+95.4%
Implied EV$1.11B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$1.54B-$1.54B-$1.54B-$1.54B-$1.54B
8.5x$20.00$20.00$20.00$20.00$20.00
10.5x$21.54$21.54$21.54$21.54$21.54
12.5x$23.09$23.09$23.09$23.09$23.09
14.5x$24.63$24.63$24.63$24.63$24.63
16.5x$26.17$26.17$26.17$26.17$26.17