ASML

ASML — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($1450.56)
DCF$584.90-59.7%
Graham Number$198.63-86.3%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 23.5%
DDM$181.07-87.5%
EV/EBITDA$1450.57+0.0%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $10.85B
Rev: 4.9% / EPS: 7.2%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$584.90
Current Price$1450.56
Upside / Downside-59.7%
Net Debt (used)-$8.63B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-0.8%3.2%7.2%11.2%15.2%
7.0%$596.77$711.28$844.15$997.55$1173.83
8.0%$492.44$584.35$690.85$813.66$954.63
9.0%$420.26$496.58$584.90$686.62$803.26
10.0%$367.34$432.28$507.33$593.67$692.56
11.0%$326.90$383.18$448.14$522.77$608.17

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $29.16
Yahoo: $60.13

Results

Graham Number$198.63
Current Price$1450.56
Margin of Safety-86.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$1450.56
Implied Near-term FCF Growth23.5%
Historical Revenue Growth4.9%
Historical Earnings Growth7.2%
Base FCF (TTM)$10.85B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $8.79

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$181.07
Current Price$1450.56
Upside / Downside-87.5%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $12.27B
Current: 44.9×
Default: -$8.63B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$1450.57
Current Price$1450.56
Upside / Downside+0.0%
Implied EV$550.44B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$12.63B-$10.63B-$8.63B-$6.63B-$4.63B
40.9x$1333.64$1328.45$1323.26$1318.07$1312.88
42.9x$1397.29$1392.10$1386.91$1381.73$1376.54
44.9x$1460.95$1455.76$1450.57$1445.38$1440.19
46.9x$1524.60$1519.41$1514.22$1509.03$1503.84
48.9x$1588.25$1583.06$1577.87$1572.68$1567.49