AVAV — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($208.32)
DCF	$-81004.85	-38984.8%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$207.40	-0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: -$318.16M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 150.7% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 10.30%

Computed WACC: 10.30%

Cost of equity (Re)11.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.64%

Debt weight (D/V)7.36%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-61720.91

Current Price$208.32

Upside / Downside-29727.9%

Net Debt (used)$237.45M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	142.7%	146.7%	150.7%	154.7%	158.7%
7.0%	$-114148.85	$-123861.98	$-134225.52	$-145271.61	$-157033.42
8.0%	$-87102.46	$-94512.34	$-102418.31	$-110844.89	$-119817.37
9.0%	$-68799.64	$-74650.91	$-80893.87	$-87547.85	$-94632.83
10.0%	$-55710.40	$-60447.10	$-65500.81	$-70887.19	$-76622.40
11.0%	$-45968.77	$-49875.99	$-54044.66	$-58487.68	$-63218.39

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-1.23

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $88.89

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$208.32

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 10.30%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 10.30%

Cost of equity (Re)11.11%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)92.64%

Debt weight (D/V)7.36%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$208.32

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth150.7%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)-$318.16M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$208.32

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $105.29M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 100.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $237.45M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$207.40

Current Price$208.32

Upside / Downside-0.4%

Implied EV$10.59B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.76B	-$762.55M	$237.45M	$1.24B	$2.24B
96.6x	$239.02	$218.99	$198.96	$178.93	$158.90
98.6x	$243.24	$223.21	$203.18	$183.15	$163.12
100.6x	$247.45	$227.42	$207.40	$187.37	$167.34
102.6x	$251.67	$231.64	$211.61	$191.58	$171.55
104.6x	$255.89	$235.86	$215.83	$195.80	$175.77

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