AVD — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($4.53)
DCF	$15.93	+251.7%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: -7.1%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$4.65	+2.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $36.30M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 0.9% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.90%

Computed WACC: 9.90%

Cost of equity (Re)11.10%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)11.56%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)39.13%

Debt weight (D/V)60.87%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$13.18

Current Price$4.53

Upside / Downside+190.9%

Net Debt (used)$183.79M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$16.12	$20.69	$26.00	$32.15	$39.23
8.0%	$12.11	$15.78	$20.05	$24.98	$30.66
9.0%	$9.32	$12.38	$15.93	$20.03	$24.74
10.0%	$7.28	$9.89	$12.91	$16.40	$20.40
11.0%	$5.71	$7.98	$10.60	$13.62	$17.09

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-3.98

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $7.61

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$4.53

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.90%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.90%

Cost of equity (Re)11.10%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.24 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)11.56%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)39.13%

Debt weight (D/V)60.87%

Results

Current Price$4.53

Implied Near-term FCF Growth-5.1%

Historical Revenue Growth0.9%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)$36.30M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$4.53

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $1.47M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 215.1×

Net Debt($B)Default: $183.79M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$4.65

Current Price$4.53

Upside / Downside+2.6%

Implied EV$316.17M

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.82B	-$816.21M	$183.79M	$1.18B	$2.18B
211.1x	$74.70	$39.57	$4.44	$-30.68	$-65.81
213.1x	$74.80	$39.67	$4.55	$-30.58	$-65.71
215.1x	$74.90	$39.78	$4.65	$-30.48	$-65.60
217.1x	$75.01	$39.88	$4.75	$-30.37	$-65.50
219.1x	$75.11	$39.98	$4.86	$-30.27	$-65.40

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