BABA

BABA — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($135.59)
DCF$-334.36-346.6%
Graham Number$105.38-22.3%
Reverse DCF
DDM$21.63-84.0%
EV/EBITDA$1086.87+701.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: -$49.49B
Rev: 4.8% / EPS: -51.8%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-334.36
Current Price$135.59
Upside / Downside-346.6%
Net Debt (used)-$70.62B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-3.0%1.0%5.0%9.0%13.0%
7.0%$-337.49$-411.72$-498.07$-598.02$-713.14
8.0%$-272.17$-331.92$-401.32$-481.54$-573.82
9.0%$-226.91$-276.66$-334.36$-400.96$-477.50
10.0%$-193.68$-236.12$-285.28$-341.94$-406.97
11.0%$-168.24$-205.12$-247.76$-296.85$-353.13

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $7.63
Yahoo: $64.69

Results

Graham Number$105.38
Current Price$135.59
Margin of Safety-22.3%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.
Current Price$135.59
Implied Near-term FCF Growth
Historical Revenue Growth4.8%
Historical Earnings Growth-51.8%
Base FCF (TTM)-$49.49B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.05

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$21.63
Current Price$135.59
Upside / Downside-84.0%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $160.29B
Current: 15.7×
Default: -$70.62B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$1086.87
Current Price$135.59
Upside / Downside+701.6%
Implied EV$2.52T
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt-$106.62B-$88.62B-$70.62B-$52.62B-$34.62B
11.7x$833.38$825.84$818.30$810.76$803.22
13.7x$967.66$960.12$952.58$945.04$937.50
15.7x$1101.95$1094.41$1086.87$1079.33$1071.79
17.7x$1236.23$1228.69$1221.15$1213.61$1206.07
19.7x$1370.51$1362.98$1355.44$1347.90$1340.36