BCRX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($8.63)
DCF	$-1.90	-122.0%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$7.41	-14.1%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 209.1% / EPS: —

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 6.44%

Computed WACC: 6.44%

Cost of equity (Re)8.47%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.76 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)75.98%

Debt weight (D/V)24.02%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-1.90

Current Price$8.63

Upside / Downside-122.0%

Net Debt (used)$470.24M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	201.1%	205.1%	209.1%	213.1%	217.1%
7.0%	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90
8.0%	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90
9.0%	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90
10.0%	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90
11.0%	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90	$-1.90

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.05

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $-1.84

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative. BVPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$8.63

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 6.44%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 6.44%

Cost of equity (Re)8.47%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.76 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)75.98%

Debt weight (D/V)24.02%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$8.63

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth209.1%

Historical Earnings Growth—

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$8.63

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $342.32M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 6.7×

Net Debt($B)Default: $470.24M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$7.41

Current Price$8.63

Upside / Downside-14.1%

Implied EV$2.31B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.53B	-$529.76M	$470.24M	$1.47B	$2.47B
2.7x	$9.96	$5.92	$1.89	$-2.14	$-6.17
4.7x	$12.72	$8.68	$4.65	$0.62	$-3.41
6.7x	$15.48	$11.44	$7.41	$3.38	$-0.65
8.7x	$18.24	$14.20	$10.17	$6.14	$2.11
10.7x	$21.00	$16.96	$12.93	$8.90	$4.87

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