BHP

BHP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($81.57)
DCF$197.03+141.5%
Graham Number$30.01-63.2%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 12.6%
DDM$54.80-32.8%
EV/EBITDA$165.09+102.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $8.14B
Rev: 10.8% / EPS: 27.5%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$197.39
Current Price$81.57
Upside / Downside+142.0%
Net Debt (used)$15.69B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term19.5%23.5%27.5%31.5%35.5%
7.0%$222.63$262.08$306.89$357.58$414.72
8.0%$175.59$206.66$241.92$281.80$326.72
9.0%$143.34$168.66$197.39$229.85$266.42
10.0%$119.92$141.08$165.07$192.17$222.68
11.0%$102.21$120.23$140.65$163.70$189.63

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $4.03
Yahoo: $9.93

Results

Graham Number$30.01
Current Price$81.57
Margin of Safety-63.2%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$81.57
Implied Near-term FCF Growth12.6%
Historical Revenue Growth10.8%
Historical Earnings Growth27.5%
Base FCF (TTM)$8.14B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $2.66

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$54.80
Current Price$81.57
Upside / Downside-32.8%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $26.29B
Current: 16.5×
Default: $15.69B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$165.09
Current Price$81.57
Upside / Downside+102.4%
Implied EV$434.87B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$7.69B$11.69B$15.69B$19.69B$23.69B
12.5x$126.82$125.25$123.67$122.10$120.52
14.5x$147.53$145.96$144.38$142.81$141.23
16.5x$168.24$166.67$165.09$163.52$161.94
18.5x$188.95$187.38$185.80$184.22$182.65
20.5x$209.66$208.09$206.51$204.93$203.36