BP

BP — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($39.30)
DCF$30.42-22.6%
Graham Number$1.24-96.8%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 9.6%
DDM$41.20+4.8%
EV/EBITDA$241.94+515.6%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $5.93B
Rev: 6.5% / EPS: —
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$30.49
Current Price$39.30
Upside / Downside-22.4%
Net Debt (used)$35.82B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-1.5%2.5%6.5%10.5%14.5%
7.0%$31.26$40.32$50.85$63.01$76.99
8.0%$23.09$30.37$38.81$48.56$59.75
9.0%$17.44$23.49$30.49$38.57$47.83
10.0%$13.29$18.44$24.40$31.26$39.12
11.0%$10.12$14.59$19.74$25.68$32.47

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $0.02
Yahoo: $3.44

Results

Graham Number$1.24
Current Price$39.30
Margin of Safety-96.8%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$39.30
Implied Near-term FCF Growth9.6%
Historical Revenue Growth6.5%
Historical Earnings Growth
Base FCF (TTM)$5.93B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $2.00

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$41.20
Current Price$39.30
Upside / Downside+4.8%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $33.84B
Current: 19.4×
Default: $35.82B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$241.94
Current Price$39.30
Upside / Downside+515.6%
Implied EV$655.58B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$17.82B$26.82B$35.82B$44.82B$53.82B
15.4x$196.13$192.61$189.10$185.59$182.07
17.4x$222.55$219.03$215.52$212.01$208.49
19.4x$248.97$245.45$241.94$238.43$234.91
21.4x$275.39$271.87$268.36$264.85$261.33
23.4x$301.81$298.29$294.78$291.27$287.75