BTU — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($35.40)
DCF	$12.83	-63.8%
Graham Number	—	—
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 23.5%
DDM	$6.18	-82.5%
EV/EBITDA	$34.01	-3.9%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $82.40M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: -9.0% / EPS: -62.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 8.06%

Computed WACC: 8.06%

Cost of equity (Re)7.79%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.44%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.36%

Debt weight (D/V)9.64%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$14.86

Current Price$35.40

Upside / Downside-58.0%

Net Debt (used)-$115.40M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$12.93	$15.36	$18.18	$21.44	$25.20
8.0%	$10.80	$12.75	$15.02	$17.64	$20.65
9.0%	$9.32	$10.95	$12.83	$15.00	$17.50
10.0%	$8.24	$9.62	$11.23	$13.08	$15.20
11.0%	$7.41	$8.61	$10.00	$11.61	$13.44

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $-0.43

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $29.08

Results

Graham Number requires positive EPS and positive Book Value per share. EPS is zero or negative.

Graham Number—

Current Price$35.40

Margin of Safety—

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 8.06%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 8.06%

Cost of equity (Re)7.79%(Rf 4.30% + β 0.63 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)13.44%(interest expense ÷ avg debt (SEC))

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)90.36%

Debt weight (D/V)9.64%

Results

Current Price$35.40

Implied Near-term FCF Growth20.4%

Historical Revenue Growth-9.0%

Historical Earnings Growth-62.6%

Base FCF (TTM)$82.40M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $0.30

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$6.18

Current Price$35.40

Upside / Downside-82.5%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $408.20M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 9.9×

Net Debt($B)Default: -$115.40M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$34.01

Current Price$35.40

Upside / Downside-3.9%

Implied EV$4.02B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$2.12B	-$1.12B	-$115.40M	$884.60M	$1.88B
5.9x	$37.02	$28.81	$20.60	$12.38	$4.17
7.9x	$43.73	$35.51	$27.30	$19.09	$10.87
9.9x	$50.43	$42.22	$34.01	$25.79	$17.58
11.9x	$57.14	$48.93	$40.71	$32.50	$24.29
13.9x	$63.85	$55.63	$47.42	$39.20	$30.99

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