BXMT — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($19.65)
DCF	$-93.40	-575.3%
Graham Number	$17.06	-13.2%
Reverse DCF	—	—
DDM	$38.73	+97.1%
EV/EBITDA	—	—

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: —

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 49.4% / EPS: 9.7%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 1.74%

Computed WACC: 1.74%

Cost of equity (Re)10.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.08 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)16.97%

Debt weight (D/V)83.03%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside—

Net Debt (used)$15.72B

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	41.4%	45.4%	49.4%	53.4%	57.4%
7.0%	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40
8.0%	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40
9.0%	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40
10.0%	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40
11.0%	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40	$-93.40

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.63

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $20.53

Results

Graham Number$17.06

Current Price$19.65

Margin of Safety-13.2%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 1.74%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 1.74%

Cost of equity (Re)10.27%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.08 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)16.97%

Debt weight (D/V)83.03%

Results

Reverse DCF requires positive TTM free cash flow.

Current Price$19.65

Implied Near-term FCF Growth—

Historical Revenue Growth49.4%

Historical Earnings Growth9.7%

Base FCF (TTM)—

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: $1.88

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$38.73

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside+97.1%

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: —

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: —×

Net Debt($B)Default: $15.72B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$-93.40

Current Price$19.65

Upside / Downside-575.3%

Implied EV$0

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