CENX — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($51.35)
DCF	$-1.24	-102.4%
Graham Number	$8.88	-82.7%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 57.8%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$52.52	+2.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $18.20M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 0.4% / EPS: -95.6%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 14.35%

Computed WACC: 14.35%

Cost of equity (Re)15.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.12 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.81%

Debt weight (D/V)10.19%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$-2.72

Current Price$51.35

Upside / Downside-105.3%

Net Debt (used)$442.70M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	-3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	9.0%	13.0%
7.0%	$-1.22	$-0.56	$0.21	$1.09	$2.12
8.0%	$-1.80	$-1.27	$-0.65	$0.06	$0.88
9.0%	$-2.20	$-1.76	$-1.24	$-0.65	$0.03
10.0%	$-2.49	$-2.12	$-1.68	$-1.18	$-0.60
11.0%	$-2.72	$-2.39	$-2.01	$-1.58	$-1.08

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.42

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $8.34

Results

Graham Number$8.88

Current Price$51.35

Margin of Safety-82.7%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 14.35%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 14.35%

Cost of equity (Re)15.98%(Rf 4.30% + β 2.12 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)89.81%

Debt weight (D/V)10.19%

Results

Current Price$51.35

Implied Near-term FCF Growth76.9%

Historical Revenue Growth0.4%

Historical Earnings Growth-95.6%

Base FCF (TTM)$18.20M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$51.35

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $249.90M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 22.6×

Net Debt($B)Default: $442.70M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$52.52

Current Price$51.35

Upside / Downside+2.3%

Implied EV$5.64B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.56B	-$557.30M	$442.70M	$1.44B	$2.44B
18.6x	$62.63	$52.52	$42.42	$32.31	$22.21
20.6x	$67.68	$57.57	$47.47	$37.36	$27.26
22.6x	$72.73	$62.62	$52.52	$42.41	$32.31
24.6x	$77.78	$67.67	$57.57	$47.46	$37.36
26.6x	$82.83	$72.72	$62.62	$52.51	$42.41

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