CIEN — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

Model	Intrinsic Value	vs Price ($353.73)
DCF	$197.99	-44.0%
Graham Number	$19.24	-94.6%
Reverse DCF	—	implied g: 30.7%
DDM	—	—
EV/EBITDA	$352.21	-0.4%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Base FCF($B)Yahoo: $667.26M

Near-term growth (yrs 1–5)(%)Rev: 20.3% / EPS: -49.3%

Long-term growth (yrs 6–10)(%)

Terminal growth rate(%)

WACC(%)Computed: 9.97%

Computed WACC: 9.97%

Cost of equity (Re)10.29%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)96.85%

Debt weight (D/V)3.15%

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$168.51

Current Price$353.73

Upside / Downside-52.4%

Net Debt (used)$318.80M

Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)

WACC \ Near-term	12.3%	16.3%	20.3%	24.3%	28.3%
7.0%	$216.45	$256.22	$301.70	$353.49	$412.25
8.0%	$172.96	$204.45	$240.43	$281.39	$327.82
9.0%	$143.06	$168.86	$198.33	$231.85	$269.83
10.0%	$121.29	$142.97	$167.71	$195.83	$227.67
11.0%	$104.78	$123.34	$144.50	$168.53	$195.73

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

MultiplierGraham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)

EPS (trailing)($)Yahoo: $0.85

Book Value / share($)Yahoo: $19.36

Results

Graham Number$19.24

Current Price$353.73

Margin of Safety-94.6%

Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

WACC(%)Computed: 9.97%

Terminal growth rate(%)

Computed WACC: 9.97%

Cost of equity (Re)10.29%(Rf 4.30% + β 1.09 × ERP 5.50%)

Cost of debt (Rd)0.00%(no debt / unavailable → 0%)

Tax rate (T)21.00%(US statutory fallback)

Equity weight (E/V)96.85%

Debt weight (D/V)3.15%

Results

Current Price$353.73

Implied Near-term FCF Growth33.9%

Historical Revenue Growth20.3%

Historical Earnings Growth-49.3%

Base FCF (TTM)$667.26M

Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Annual dividend D0($/share)Yahoo: —

Dividend growth rate (g)(%)

Required return (r)(%)

Results

This company does not pay a dividend. DDM is not applicable — the intrinsic value shown uses D0 = $0 unless you enter a hypothetical dividend above.

DDM Intrinsic Value / share—

Current Price$353.73

Upside / Downside—

Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

EBITDA($B)Yahoo: $451.13M

Target EV/EBITDA multipleCurrent: 111.2×

Net Debt($B)Default: $318.80M

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$352.21

Current Price$353.73

Upside / Downside-0.4%

Implied EV$50.14B

Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)

Mult \ Net Debt	-$1.68B	-$681.20M	$318.80M	$1.32B	$2.32B
107.2x	$353.59	$346.52	$339.45	$332.38	$325.32
109.2x	$359.97	$352.90	$345.83	$338.76	$331.69
111.2x	$366.35	$359.28	$352.21	$345.14	$338.07
113.2x	$372.73	$365.66	$358.59	$351.52	$344.45
115.2x	$379.10	$372.03	$364.97	$357.90	$350.83

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