CNQ

CNQ — Valuation Models

Interactive models with editable assumptions. All calculations run client-side.

Valuation Summary

ModelIntrinsic Valuevs Price ($44.23)
DCF$50.18+13.5%
Graham Number$27.22-38.5%
Reverse DCFimplied g: 5.2%
DDM$35.23-20.4%
EV/EBITDA$44.35+0.3%

Values reflect default assumptions. Adjust inputs in each model below to update.

1 — Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $6.24B
Rev: 7.0% / EPS: -72.9%
Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Intrinsic Value / share$50.18
Current Price$44.23
Upside / Downside+13.5%
Net Debt (used)$18.60B
Sensitivity: WACC (rows) × Near-term g (cols)
WACC \ Near-term-1.0%3.0%7.0%11.0%15.0%
7.0%$51.36$63.40$77.37$93.50$112.05
8.0%$40.43$50.10$61.30$74.21$89.04
9.0%$32.87$40.89$50.18$60.89$73.16
10.0%$27.32$34.15$42.05$51.13$61.54
11.0%$23.08$29.00$35.84$43.69$52.68

2 — Graham Number

Assumptions

Graham used 22.5 (15× P/E × 1.5× P/B)
Yahoo: $2.32
Yahoo: $14.20

Results

Graham Number$27.22
Current Price$44.23
Margin of Safety-38.5%
Formula: √(22.5 × max(0,EPS) × max(0,BVPS))

3 — Reverse DCF (Implied Growth)

Assumptions

Default: 9% (no SEC data)

Results

Current Price$44.23
Implied Near-term FCF Growth5.2%
Historical Revenue Growth7.0%
Historical Earnings Growth-72.9%
Base FCF (TTM)$6.24B
Implied growth is the FCF growth rate (yrs 1–5) that makes the DCF intrinsic value equal the current price. Long-term growth is set to half the implied near-term rate.

4 — Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Assumptions

Yahoo: $1.71

Results

DDM Intrinsic Value / share$35.23
Current Price$44.23
Upside / Downside-20.4%
Formula: D0 × (1+g) / (r − g)

5 — EV/EBITDA Multiple

Assumptions

Yahoo: $16.03B
Current: 6.9×
Default: $18.60B

Results

Implied Equity Value / share$44.35
Current Price$44.23
Upside / Downside+0.3%
Implied EV$110.99B
Sensitivity: EV/EBITDA multiple (rows) × Net Debt (cols)
Mult \ Net Debt$8.60B$13.60B$18.60B$23.60B$28.60B
2.9x$18.37$15.97$13.57$11.17$8.77
4.9x$33.76$31.36$28.96$26.56$24.16
6.9x$49.15$46.75$44.35$41.95$39.55
8.9x$64.54$62.14$59.74$57.34$54.94
10.9x$79.93$77.53$75.13$72.73$70.33